The U.S. military's Central Command has repeated its claim that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial shipping, but real-world conditions tell a completely different story. Traffic in the key waterway has dropped to a three-week low, with just three commercial ships — two cargo vessels and the Chinese-owned tanker Hsin Ocean — passing through the strait on Tuesday. This sharp decline reflects the growing danger for international shipping as tensions continue to escalate.
President Trump has made the point numerous times in recent days, insisting that the vital waterway is open and vowing to retaliate with attacks on Iranian infrastructure for every new strike on commercial ships. But despite his repeated assurances and the U.S. promoting a southern route near the coast of Oman, most commercial operators are avoiding the area. Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Marisks, a Greek maritime risk firm, said the situation is dire for large commercial ships: "Nothing is going through." Even with U.S. air support for convoys, he explained that attacks keep happening and there's "no guarantee of safe passage."
The risks to mariners are very real. Greek shipping company Dynacom was among the last international firms to send vessels through the strait. Two of its ships were struck off the coast of Oman earlier this week, forcing crews to evacuate. The company is now considering halting operations in the region. South Korea's Sinokor Group has reportedly offered sailors six additional months of pay to convince them to attempt the dangerous journey — a clear sign of how extreme the situation has become.
The problem is now spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz. In Yemen, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have announced they will prevent Saudi Arabia from using its Red Sea ports to export energy to Asian markets. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical shipping chokepoint, is now under threat. At least five vessels turned back before attempting to navigate the Bab el-Mandeb after the Houthis made their blockade announcement. President Trump dismissed the situation, claiming there is "no blockade" in the Red Sea and stating, "If something like that happens, we take care of that."
The human toll
Maniatis described the toll on maritime workers as devastating. He explained that many seafarers — both experienced veterans and younger crew members — are suffering psychological trauma. They don't even want to be on ships anymore," he said. The emotional and mental damage is growing as more ships face threats. In fact, 17 commercial mariners have lost their lives in 61 separate attacks in the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed.
The broader economic impact
Before the recent conflict, about 30% of global oil supplies passed through the two straits annually. The combined threats to both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are now seriously disrupting this traffic. Local and regional ships still move through the waterways, but international operators are backing away. The lack of reliable passage is forcing a major shift in shipping strategies and creating long-term questions about the stability of global energy markets.