On October 27, Israelis will cast their ballots for the first time since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which triggered a complex conflict across Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. The election is expected to be among the most pivotal in the nation's recent history, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the heart of a deeply divided political scene. While he seeks another term, polls suggest his coalition could be on the verge of losing its grip on power.
Public confidence in Netanyahu appears to be waning. The October 7 attack significantly damaged his reputation as a security leader. Even though many Israelis continue to support military actions against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, this support does not fully restore trust in Netanyahu's leadership. Yet, in a country where political coalitions often determine the final outcome, polling data is not the full story. No single party has ever secured an outright majority in Israel's 120-seat Knesset, and smaller parties frequently hold the balance of power.
Smaller Parties Hold the Keys
Israel's electoral system uses a proportional representation model. Political parties must surpass a 3.25 percent threshold to win seats in the Knesset. After the election, smaller parties often emerge as pivotal players in coalition negotiations, leveraging their influence to secure ministerial roles or policy concessions in exchange for backing larger parties. Netanyahu, despite facing setbacks, has a long history of navigating political crises. The uncertainty of post-election arithmetic remains a defining factor.
The current Knesset is among the few in Israel's history to have completed its full four-year term, a rare achievement in a country plagued by political instability. In the years from 2019 to 2022, the nation experienced a cycle of elections and failed governments. This upcoming election will determine whether a new leader can break the pattern or if Netanyahu’s longstanding coalition strategies will once again prove decisive.
Netanyahu’s Main Competitors Take Shape
Gadi Eisenkot, a retired military chief and former war hero, has gained traction as one of Netanyahu’s most formidable rivals. Eisenkot, who lost a son during the Gaza conflict, presents himself as a security-focused leader and a political outsider with a reputation for integrity. Other contenders include former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who previously joined forces in 2021 to unseat Netanyahu by forming a multi-faceted coalition. However, that government lasted only 18 months before dissolving.
Avigdor Lieberman, once a close ally of Netanyahu and a former defense minister, has now become one of his fiercest critics. Lieberman accuses Netanyahu of being overly lenient toward Hamas and has publicly broken with the prime minister. On the opposition side, the coalition also includes Arab parties and the left-wing Democrats, led by Yair Golan, a former military general. Political party lists remain fluid, and changes could still occur before the September nomination deadline.
Key Issues: War, Economy, and Identity
The October 7 attack has left a deep and lasting impact. Opposition parties are calling for the establishment of an independent commission to investigate the government's failures that allowed the attack to occur. They argue that accountability should be the next government's top priority. Netanyahu's government, however, has rejected this proposal, instead backing a politically appointed inquiry. Additionally, the prime minister faces scrutiny over past policy decisions, especially regarding Qatar, which provided financial support to Gaza during the conflict.
Israel’s military strategy has undergone a major transformation since October 7, moving from a traditional model of short wars to prolonged engagements across Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, and other regions, including tensions with Iran and Yemen. The public is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of this strategy.
The debate over mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews has resurfaced as a key issue. This disagreement has expanded into a broader conversation about the role of religious institutions in shaping national policies. Economic issues are also weighing heavily on voters. High living costs, unaffordable housing, and rising household stress remain persistent concerns. With a significant increase in defense spending since 2023, the challenge lies in balancing national security with domestic economic priorities.
This election will test whether Netanyahu can once again outmaneuver his opponents or if the shifting coalition dynamics will pave the way for a new direction in Israel's governance. The outcome will depend not only on the popular vote but also on the strategic calculations made in the weeks and months following the election.