According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the country's net overseas migration fell to 301,000 in 2024. This represents a sharp 45% decline compared to the record high of 556,000 in 2023. At the same time, the Labor government has postponed a major speech by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, who had been due to address migration reforms at the National Press Club. The delay has drawn attention to what sources describe as 'political considerations.'
Although the National Press Club speech has been put on hold, government insiders confirmed to Guardian Australia that plans for reform are moving forward. The proposed changes aim to strengthen the system, especially for temporary visas and working holiday programs. They may also restrict certain appeal rights for migrants. However, the government has said these revisions will not push net overseas migration (NOM) below current levels.
The government has chosen to keep the permanent migration target at 185,000 people for the 2025–26 financial year. That’s the same as the previous year. Yet, the rules governing the program are becoming more selective. For instance, international students applying for postgraduate study visas are now required to pay $5,750. That’s a 25% increase and the second hike in just four months.
Political Pressure and Public Opinion
The decision to delay the speech seems to reflect the broader political context. With Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on leave, the government has chosen not to finalize the speech. Sources suggest the new timing will give Albanese a chance to promote the proposed changes. The timing also follows growing criticism of Labor's migration policies, particularly from One Nation and the Coalition.
According to the most recent Guardian Essential poll, One Nation is drawing 25% of the primary vote. This steady rise has positioned the populist party ahead of the Coalition in recent months. At the same time, Labor’s indicative primary vote has increased to 31% in July, while the Coalition’s share has dropped further to 22%.
When asked about the government's migration strategy, Energy Minister Chris Bowen chose not to elaborate. However, he emphasized the need for balance. 'A lot of businesses rely on a well-calibrated immigration system,' he said. 'This is especially true for roles that are tough to fill domestically.'
Criticism of Fear-Based Politics
Jana Favero, deputy chief executive of the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre, has criticized the government for what she calls the 'politics of fear.' She believes the planned National Press Club address should have been an opportunity to unite the country, not to spread division.
Jonno Duniam, the shadow home affairs minister for the Labor Party, accused the government of creating 'more chaos and confusion' by delaying the speech.