Title Role, West End Kid, and Remember Mamba are set to meet again in the Saratoga Derby. The 1 3/16-mile Grade 1 race is the middle part of the new Turf Trinity series, which highlights top two-year-olds on turf. Title Role edged out West End Kid in the first leg, the Belmont Derby, with Remember Mamba trailing by a head.
The Saratoga Derby is a key part of a busy 14-race Saturday card. It includes four Grade 1 races in a row, starting with the Test and ending with the Whitney. The derby is scheduled for 5:52 p.m. on Saturday. Pacific Avenue has been taken out of the race, possibly leaving the field at 10 horses if Glavine and Bottas are also scratched.
Race History and Trends
In the race’s seven-year history, six of the seven winners had finished in the top three in their prior race. Post 4 has been the best starting position, with three winners, while the rail has been a poor draw, with only two horses finishing in the top two.
Mid-pack runners have had a slight advantage in the Saratoga Derby over the years. No single running style has dominated, with two pacesetters, two pressers, two mid-pack runners, and one closer among the seven winners. Title Role is the favorite this year, though only one of the last seven favorites have won the race.
Winners of the race tend to pay well, with an average of $20.17. Only two winners in the seven years have paid less than double digits. Glacius, who has faced tough competition in Europe, and Bottas, who improved in the Belmont Derby, are in the field.
Contenders and Performance Records
Bottas is coming off a layoff and has a strong record in similar situations, with a 24% win rate and 56% in-the-money performance. West End Kid passed Title Role late in the Belmont Derby, and the added distance at Saratoga might make that move the key in this race. Remember Mamba showed strong late stamina in his last start, despite a tough stretch battle.
McCready is a long shot, having won a 1 3/16-mile race at Keeneland in April, though he doesn’t typically set the pace. That could be a problem in a race where speed is lacking. However, his past performance shows he has the ability to run fast at this distance.
The Saratoga Derby was started again in 2019 after a 113-year break. Every winner in the seven years of data gained ground in the stretch except A Thread of Blue, who controlled the 2019 race. Two of the seven winners came from the Belmont Derby. No single running style is preferred, with winners including pacesetters, pressers, mid-pack runners, and a closer.
The race has offered good payouts, with all but two winners paying double digits and an average of $20.17. Post 4 has produced three winners, while the rail has been a poor choice. Two England-bred and two Ireland-bred colts have won the race. In 2021, State of Run (IRE) won for $44.20. Nations Pride (IRE) placed in the Belmont Derby before winning the Saratoga Derby in 2019.
With Pacific Avenue scratched, Glacius stands out as a possible contender. He's not a Group 1 winner but has run against strong competition in Europe. He might be a surprise performer in this race.
The race again lacks strong speed. McCready won a 1 3/16-mile race at Keeneland in April but doesn’t like to lead. Title Role pressed Touch of Fire in the Belmont Derby, while Remember Mamba had too much work to do in the stretch but galloped out well. The top three from the Belmont Derby have handled longer distances without issues, suggesting they could do the same here.
West End Kid is expected to pass Title Role late in the race, and that move might decide the outcome at Saratoga. If Bottas runs, he could complete the superfecta. This is his third start after a layoff, a situation where trainer Clement has a 24% win rate and 56% in-the-money record. Bottas also had trouble finding room in the stretch in the Belmont Derby.