Futures dominate spot in a new record
Bitcoin futures trading on Binance outpaced spot trading by nearly eight times this week, marking a record for the futures-to-spot volume ratio. The data shows daily futures volume on the exchange reached $57.82 billion, while spot volume languished at $6.08 billion. The figure comes as Bitcoin hovers near $64,000, with futures activity continuing to accelerate despite the stagnant price.
“This trend reflects a shift in market activity, with more investors and traders preferring to use futures for leverage, risk management, and short-term trading strategies,” said Arab Chain, a contributing analyst at CryptoQuant. The data highlights a growing preference for futures among traders, particularly as spot demand has weakened in recent months.
Spot demand weakens as Bitcoin stays rangebound
CryptoQuant data shows a consistent drop in spot demand since June, with 30-day rolling averages revealing a more pronounced decline compared to derivatives. Bitcoin’s price has remained within a narrow band above $60,000 for two months, leading to waning interest among spot traders. The lack of price movement has made leveraged futures an attractive alternative for many.
The onchain data also shows Bitcoin’s realized losses spiked in February when the price first hit $60,000. Since then, retests of the same level have failed to generate much volume, with both buyers and sellers showing signs of exhaustion. “Bitcoin spot demand is weakening,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted in a recent post on X.
Traders brace for a September downside breakout
Bitfinex Research reported that traders are pricing in a continuation of the current range for Bitcoin through August, with a possible downward move expected in September. Options traders are hedging for the range to resolve to the downside, according to data from Glassnode. The pattern mirrors historical bear-market behavior for Bitcoin.
“For now, volumes cluster in the middle of the range and thin out near the extremes,” the research team wrote. “Taker volume especially is a sign that neither side is pushing hard to break the range in either direction.” This observation suggests the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with little conviction in either bullish or bearish movements.