Across the US, smoke from recent wildfires lingered in the air. A coalition of Democratic senators raised concerns about a controversial new digital trend. These lawmakers come from states frequently battered by fires. They include California and Oregon. They were focused on the surge of prediction market platforms. These platforms let individuals place bets on wildfires and other disasters. They warned that such speculative practices could encourage dangerous behavior. This happens in an already volatile climate.
Senators call for CFTC action
Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon led the charge. Senators from California included Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada also led. They sent a letter to the chair of the CFTC. The letter expressed alarm over the growing trend. The lawmakers urged the agency to take decisive action. The letter was dated July 2025. It argued that unrestricted betting on wildfires risks creating an environment. People might be tempted to start fires to guarantee their bets succeed. The senators called for immediate regulatory intervention. They wanted to curb potential for harm.
The rise of wildfire betting
Platforms like Polymarket and Wyldfyre capitalized on demand. They offered wildfire-related prediction markets. During the 2025 wildfires in Palisades and Eaton, Los Angeles, Polymarket enabled bets. Users placed bets on outcomes such as when fires would be contained. They also bet whether fires would spread into specific neighborhoods. They also bet how much acreage would be destroyed. According to Jamie L Pietruska, a historian at Rutgers University, $1.2 million was wagered on these fires. He monitored these transactions. This highlights the scale of the issue.
In 2025, Wyldfyre launched as a specialized platform. It marketed itself as the first prediction market dedicated to California wildfires. The site offered traders the chance to speculate. They speculated on the direction and progression of fires. This raised questions about ethical implications. These activities occur in the context of real-world disaster. As wildfires rage across the West, these platforms are becoming increasingly prevalent.
Ethics and enforcement
Ann Skeet, a senior director of leadership ethics at Santa Clara University’s Markkula Center for Applied Ethics, supported the senators' call for CFTC action. Skeet warned that allowing bets on how fires spread could result in dangerous real-world consequences. “There’s just the practical reality of what it is you might be motivating people to do,” she said, highlighting the potential for individuals to be driven by financial gain to take harmful action. Skeet emphasized that such practices could blur the line between prediction and provocation.
Pietruska echoed these concerns, noting that while informal weather-related betting has existed for centuries, the rapid and large-scale nature of digital prediction markets is a new development. She pointed to the recent case at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris, where suspicious Polymarket bets coincided with unusual temperature readings on forecasting equipment, raising eyebrows among investigators. “Gambling on the weather is not new,” Pietruska said, “but the digital scale and speed at which it's happening in a climate-changed world is what worries me.”
Polymarket has already drawn regulatory attention in the past. The company was fined $1.4 million in 2022 for operating in the U.S. without the necessary license. The CFTC, the agency tasked with overseeing the market, is now reportedly investigating the platform for a third time, with the Wall Street Journal first reporting this in June 2025. This ongoing scrutiny highlights the growing concerns surrounding the platform’s impact on public safety.
The senators’ letter to the CFTC demanded that the agency assess whether betting on wildfires served the public interest and called for the creation of measures to prevent people from profiting off such catastrophic events. The lawmakers gave the CFTC a deadline of August 14 to respond to a set of specific questions outlined in the letter.
Despite the growing calls for action, neither Polymarket nor the CFTC provided a public response to the Guardian’s requests for comment. With the US already grappling with a record-breaking wildfire season that has burned over 2 million acres and displaced tens of thousands of people, the debate over whether such betting practices should be regulated is gaining urgency.