In early June, Donald Trump, alongside Benjamin Netanyahu, began a series of strikes against Iran, aiming to remove its leadership and assert U.S. control over the vital Strait of Hormuz. This aggressive approach has not only failed to achieve its goals but has also triggered a broader conflict with far-reaching global repercussions.
By the middle of the month, the U.S. and Israeli attacks had continued for 11 consecutive nights, striking aircraft hangars and drone storage facilities throughout Iran. This escalation came after Iran launched its own retaliatory strikes on U.S. and regional military bases. Gulf states have accused Iran of targeting essential desalination plants, which provide fresh water to millions. Now, both nations claim the other is using the strait, through which 20% of the world’s oil was previously transported, as a strategic bargaining chip.
The U.S. defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, testified before the Senate that the cost of the operation, known as Operation 'Epic Fury,' has already exceeded $37.5 billion. This number covers not just weapons and supplies but also the financial costs of recent losses, including three American soldiers killed last week. Despite the rising price in both money and lives, Trump’s early confidence in achieving a quick and decisive victory has not been realized.
A Miscalculated War
Initially, Trump presented the attacks as a calculated move, drawing comparisons to the 2019 Venezuela situation, where he believed regime change was possible through targeted force. Early U.S. airstrikes, which resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, were described by Hegseth as having 'cut off the head of the snake.' However, the Iranian regime did not collapse but instead adjusted and retaliated with increasing intensity. The protests that Trump anticipated have not materialized in a way that could destabilize the government.
What began as a mission to overthrow the Iranian government has now evolved into a more cautious and strategic effort to open the Strait of Hormuz and recover from the war's initial chaos. Yet, shipments of oil, gas, and fertilizers continue to be stuck, with no immediate resolution apparent. The conflict has shifted from a bold strike against a regime to a prolonged standoff that remains unsolved.
In late June, the U.S. and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire agreement, offering a brief pause in hostilities and initiating a period for negotiations on the future of the strait. However, this fragile diplomatic effort has not led to a breakthrough. Continued threats from Iran and the Houthi movement—including the potential of a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia—indicate that regional tensions are still high, and the conflict shows no signs of abating.
As American public support for Trump’s war effort declines, the situation increasingly resembles the unpopular Vietnam conflict in its sixth year. The growing war fatigue among the public is hard to ignore. Even Trump’s personal interests in the region, such as the Trump Organization’s ongoing construction of a skyscraper in Dubai, now appear vulnerable to the long-term consequences of the conflict.
Vali Nasr, professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies, pointed out that what began as a war aimed at securing a legacy for Trump has instead become a war of attrition. Trump’s strategic errors, particularly in understanding the resilience of the Iranian government, have led to a global crisis with no easy resolution. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, supply chains are disrupted, and a new wave of instability is taking hold.