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Cracks in the Wall

Taiwan Struggles to Build Resilience Against China

Taiwan lacks sufficient civil defense capabilities to endure a prolonged conflict with China, despite growing public interest in grassroots preparedness.
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Military personnel and officials observe a drone during an outdoor demonstration.
Foto: Symbolbild | Bildquelle · Symbolbild (thematisch gesucht: Taiwans Missing Deterrent) - nicht das Originalfoto der Quelle.
The essentials
  • Taiwan's deterrence strategy depends on U.S. arms and conventional military capabilities.
  • Civil defense in Taiwan remains underfunded and fragmented, with 2-13% of local budgets allocated to tactical training.
  • Groups like Kuma Academy and Forward Alliance train citizens in emergency skills but depend on private donations.

Balancing Military and Civil Defense in Taiwan's Strategy

In the face of mounting pressure from China, Taiwan has focused on building a robust deterrence strategy that includes a combination of military hardware and civil resilience. The island's defense arsenal features advanced aircraft such as the F-16V fighter jets, Indigenous Defense Fighters, and missile systems like the Patriot and Hsiung Feng to prevent potential air and sea threats. Ground-based systems like HIMARS batteries are also used to counter any initial invasion attempts. These conventional weapons form part of a comprehensive plan aimed at making military action against Taiwan costly and difficult for China.

However, military deterrence alone cannot fully counter the range of threats posed by China. Beijing's tactics extend beyond direct military confrontation, including economic pressure, sabotage of communication systems, and cognitive warfare through disinformation campaigns. These approaches target societal stability without traditional war, requiring Taiwan to rethink its defense strategy. A response that includes strong civil defense is necessary to address these unconventional challenges effectively.

Civil Defense Mobilization

To meet this need, the government has introduced new initiatives to bolster civil defense. The All-Out Defense Mobilization Agency was set up to provide central coordination for defense planning. The concept of 'whole-of-society resilience' has also been embraced in official discourse, promoting the integration of government and civilian efforts. Despite these steps, Taiwan's civil defense system remains weak and in need of significant improvement.

A major issue is the lack of sufficient funding and coordination in local civil defense programs. Local budgets for training programs are as low as 2 to 13 percent, and initiatives remain scattered. Civilian efforts are often disconnected from government planning, creating a gap in preparedness. In response, private organizations have stepped in to fill the void. Kuma Academy and Forward Alliance, for example, offer training in first aid, evacuation, and techniques to combat disinformation. These groups have attracted attention, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine highlighted the risks of gray zone activities.

Forward Alliance, in particular, saw rapid growth after February 2022, with over 1,000 people on its waitlist. Philanthropist Robert Tsao contributed more than US$31 million to Kuma Academy in 2022, expanding its operations. Nonetheless, depending on private donations is not a sustainable strategy, and without more government backing, these groups may struggle to maintain long-term impact.

Legally, Taiwan has a Civil Defense Act, most recently updated in 2021, that aims to address modern challenges. The law outlines a civil defense structure at various levels, from municipal to village, with training requirements in disaster response and support for military operations. Despite this legal framework, local implementation is inconsistent. Existing shelter networks are often outdated, poorly maintained, and lack basic supplies needed during emergencies.

Political Challenges

Political differences also complicate progress. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) advocates for stronger civil resilience, but the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) argues that such measures risk militarizing daily life. These ideological divides slow down the development of a cohesive and unified civil defense strategy.

South Korea's experience offers a potential model for Taiwan. After a six-year hiatus, the country began large-scale civil defense drills again in 2023. These exercises, part of a broader disaster management framework, prepare citizens for a wide range of emergencies beyond military conflicts. A key component is the Civil Defense Corps, composed of young men trained during their mandatory military service, ensuring a well-prepared population. South Korea's approach demonstrates how civil defense can become both widespread and institutionalized.

Learning from South Korea

By learning from South Korea and other examples, Taiwan can refine its civil defense strategy. Building strong civil resilience is essential for increasing the cost of aggression for any potential adversary and challenging the assumption of a quick or easy victory. Combining military readiness with strong civil and societal preparedness will be vital for ensuring Taiwan's security in the long run.

What's next

Taiwan's government faces a pressing need to integrate civil society and state efforts in preparation for a potential conflict. Without stronger coordination, the current gaps in civil defense will remain a critical vulnerability.

Frequently asked questions

What is the current state of Taiwan's civil defense?

Taiwan's civil defense remains underfunded and fragmented, with local budgets allocating only 2 to 13 percent for tactical training. Private groups like Kuma Academy and Forward Alliance offer training but face limitations without government support.

What lessons can Taiwan learn from South Korea?

South Korea offers a model of institutionalized civil defense through large-scale drills and a Civil Defense Corps, demonstrating how resilience can be integrated into disaster management and conflict preparedness.

How much funding has Kuma Academy received?

Kuma Academy has received over US$31 million in donations from businessman Robert Tsao in 2022, primarily through private philanthropy.

Based on reporting by The Diplomat, compiled by the Tradingbird newsroom. Published 07 Aug 2026, 18:12.
Topics: Diplo

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