SpaceX, officially known as Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), is preparing to unveil its first earnings report as a publicly traded company on August 4. The company's initial public offering was the largest in history, marking a major milestone for the aerospace sector. This upcoming report will be closely analyzed by investors and industry observers alike, as it offers the first glimpse into how the company is performing financially since transitioning to public ownership.
SpaceX's progress in two key areas—Starlink satellite internet and its AI infrastructure business—is expected to be a major focus. In 2025, the Starlink segment saw a 50% year-over-year increase in revenue, making it a promising source of long-term financial gains. Investors are watching to see if this growth can continue and how Starlink will contribute to the company’s overall financial health in the coming years.
Starlink and AI growth
Starlink has been positioned as a cornerstone of SpaceX's revenue strategy. In 2025, it contributed $11.4 billion to the company's total revenue, but its ability to generate robust profit margins remains a question. The success of Starlink, along with its potential to maintain or improve these margins, will play a crucial role in shaping SpaceX's financial future. Analysts will be closely examining the segment's performance to determine if it can sustain its current trajectory.
At the same time, the AI infrastructure business is gaining significant traction. Last year, this area brought in $3.2 billion in revenue, thanks in part to major partnerships with companies like Anthropic and Alphabet. These strategic agreements are expected to drive even higher revenue in the coming quarters. With demand for AI compute power on the rise, SpaceX's role in the market is becoming more prominent, and investors are optimistic about its potential for continued expansion.
Analysts are projecting that SpaceX's second-quarter revenue could reach $6.9 billion, a 68% year-over-year increase. Looking further ahead, forecasts for 2026 and 2027 suggest a potential 100% annual revenue growth rate. By 2027, the company could see total revenue reach $80 billion, up from $18.7 billion in 2025. These figures represent a significant leap and highlight the massive expectations surrounding the company's growth trajectory.
Post-earnings volatility risk
After the earnings report, another critical event will occur on August 6—the conclusion of the lockup period for insider shares. This means that insiders who held shares privately for years will now be free to sell them publicly. Experts are concerned that this could lead to a flood of sell orders as these individuals look to return profits to their partners or investors. Such activity could create significant market pressure, potentially affecting the stock price in the near term.
With a market cap of $1.5 trillion, even a relatively small increase in sell orders could impact the stock's valuation. This situation is not uncommon after an IPO, and historical data indicates that many IPO stocks struggle to outperform the broader market in the year following their debut. The unlocking of insider shares is expected to introduce a level of short-term volatility that may influence investor sentiment and stock performance.
Should investors buy now?
SpaceX shares have already dropped 44% from their peak, making them an intriguing option for potential buyers. However, investors should be cautious, as the post-lockup period may create near-term volatility that could affect the stock price. In the long run, the company's success will depend on its business fundamentals, particularly its ability to deliver strong revenue growth and maintain healthy profit margins.
While the company is forecasting a 100% annual revenue growth rate over two consecutive years, maintaining such a pace may prove difficult. Another potential revenue stream could emerge from reselling unused AI data center capacity. However, analysts believe that these activities may not yield substantial profit margins, limiting their financial impact. Given these challenges, the combination of high expectations and potential sell-offs could lead to a decline in the stock price over the next few months.
Wall Street expects roughly $6.82 billion in revenue, but analysts admit their estimates are highly uncertain. Key things to watch include free cash flow, AI division, Starlink's average revenue per user, and Starship development progress. SpaceX generated $1 billion in operating cash flow last quarter but had negative $9.1 billion in free cash flow. The AI division was reportedly burning about $1 billion a month last quarter, but recent deals with Anthropic and Google could change this dynamic. Starlink's average revenue per user is crucial to its long-term vision. The new Starship rocket is foundational to SpaceX's future, and any operational developments on this front will be of great interest.