According to a conscript interviewed by the independent Russian exile media outlet Verstka, Russia's military units are currently staffed at a mere 30 to 40% of their full capacity. This is in the context of claims made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Russia is preparing to launch a new mobilization drive in the autumn to bolster its military efforts in the war.
Zelenskyy, drawing on information from intelligence services, has stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to recruit more soldiers to fight in the war against Ukraine. He emphasized that despite attempts to escalate attacks, Russia is losing more soldiers on the front than it can replace.
Mobilization efforts and recruitment rates
In the autumn of 2022, Putin issued a decree launching a partial mobilization that is still in place, according to the presidential administration. The decree was intended to ensure the armed forces fulfill their objectives. However, recent reports indicate a significant decline in recruitment rates. In April 2026, Moscow reportedly sent 1,708 recruits to the front, which is a 30% drop compared to the same time in 2025.
The drop in recruitment continued in May, with 1,378 recruits being sent, and sources suggest that the numbers for June were also similarly low. For soldiers on fixed-term contracts, the decline is more pronounced. Recruitment for this category has dropped by more than half in the last quarter of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year.
According to reports by Verstka and Vaschnyje Istorii, the recruitment rate for soldiers on fixed-term contracts fell even further in early 2026. Military personnel interviewed by Verstka mentioned that many of the contract soldiers sent to fight this year were not prepared for combat and often left the front lines. Some new arrivals were not even fit for combat.
Signs of movement and migration
The demand for rental properties in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, has surged. Rents have increased by about 30% due to the rising interest from Russians. Landlords in the area note that 80% of inquiries now come from Russians who are either moving to or planning to relocate to Armenia. This shift in behavior is happening just before the State Duma election, which is scheduled for September 18 to 20.
This increase in demand mirrors a similar situation in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Experts suggest that this trend is a sign that Russians are aware of potential changes, possibly linked to the prospect of a new mobilization.
In response to Zelenskyy's comments about a possible new mobilization, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov chose to remain silent. He stated, 'It is not Zelenskyy's job to talk about our plans.'
Russian Federation Council member Andrei Klishas and former president Dmitry Medvedev have both dismissed the rumors of a new mobilization. Klishas stated that the issue is not being discussed in Russia and is unnecessary, while Medvedev called the claims 'pre-election propaganda.'
Despite these dismissals, Medvedev claimed that 200,000 people had enlisted in the Russian army in the first half of 2026. However, experts remain skeptical about the accuracy of this figure, noting that the information provided by the Russian authorities is often adjusted to meet their objectives.
Ukrainian and Russian sources suggest a pattern is emerging. Although the Kremlin is not openly discussing the potential for another mobilization, the high attrition rate and challenges in recruitment may be prompting Russia to reconsider its strategy in the ongoing conflict.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in late July that the Kremlin is preparing the groundwork for a potential new mobilization. ISW analysts noted that such a move would depend on Putin's personal assessment of the battlefield situation and his views on the stability and integrity of the Kremlin.
ISW analysts also highlighted that it remains unclear whether or how Putin will decide to implement the mobilization. This uncertainty is compounded by the fact that Russia's military is experiencing significant losses and recruitment difficulties.
Verstka's recent report has also noted an increase in Russian interest in Armenian rental apartments. This trend is reminiscent of what happened in 2022 when the invasion of Ukraine began. The surge in demand for apartments in Yerevan is being attributed to the increased number of Russians relocating to Armenia in anticipation of the upcoming State Duma election.
Landlords in Yerevan report that most of their new clients are Russians who have either recently moved to the country or are planning to do so. This is a stark change from previous years, when most clients were Russians who had been living in Armenia for some time.
Military expert Yan Matveyev commented on the situation, stating that the figures provided by Russian officials should be taken with caution. He explained that the information is often adjusted to meet their political goals, but when compared with independent analyses, the numbers are not far off the mark.
The combination of declining recruitment rates, increasing movement of Russians to neighboring countries, and the possibility of a new mobilization suggests that the situation in Russia is evolving. The Kremlin may be under pressure to find solutions to its military challenges, which are likely to influence its strategic decisions in the coming months.