Russian losses climb
Ukraine’s military leadership has reported that Russia lost over 42,800 troops in July 2026, which would mark the largest monthly loss Kyiv has documented since the war began. This figure reflects a significant shift in battlefield dynamics. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, point to the growing impact of drone warfare, with some 30,272 of those casualties directly linked to Ukrainian drone operations. The increase in fatalities is attributed to Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian-held territory and disrupt supply lines.
Kyiv is observing a new trend in how the war is being conducted. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Ukraine now holds an 8:1 advantage in reported casualty rates during the first half of 2026. This stands in stark contrast to earlier parts of the war, when Russia typically maintained a kill ratio of 2:1 or 3:1 in its favor.
Russia shifts tactics
Faced with escalating losses and internal challenges, including energy shortages, Russia has adjusted its strategy to counter Ukraine’s advancements. It has increased its reliance on glide bombs and ballistic missiles, weapons that Ukraine has struggled to defend against effectively. Ukraine’s defence ministry confirmed that 8,300 glide bombs were dropped by Russian forces in July alone, surpassing previous monthly totals and signaling a new intensity in Moscow’s aerial assault.
Despite rising battlefield pressure, Russian President Vladimir Putin has opted not to deploy regular army conscripts or reservists in what he refers to as the “Special Military Operation.” This decision appears aimed at avoiding potential public backlash at home, particularly if mobilization efforts might provoke domestic unrest or resistance.
Air campaign expands
In an effort to further tip the scales in Ukraine’s favor, President Zelenskyy announced the renewal of a 40-day air strike campaign on August 4. This offensive aims to strike at the heart of Russia’s war machine by targeting military production facilities, oil refineries, and infrastructure near the front lines. According to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), the operation has already resulted in attacks on 14 refineries, numerous oil depots, and four airfields.
Recent strikes have included high-profile targets such as a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd and three additional refineries in Ufa, which is 1,600 kilometers (994 miles) inside Russian territory. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that 6,225 Ukrainian drones were launched toward the Russian capital in July, making up two-thirds of Ukraine’s total long-range drone attacks. These strikes have significantly disrupted Russian infrastructure and logistics.
Ukraine is now launching nearly 10,000 long-range drones each month. This is a dramatic increase compared to 2024, when the initial goal was to produce just 11,000 drones for the entire year. The rapid production and deployment of drones have become a central element of Ukraine’s strategy to sustain its offensive and weaken Russia’s energy and military capabilities.
A recent analysis by the Financial Times, based on satellite imagery, found that Ukraine has destroyed approximately one-third of Russia’s total refining capacity. These attacks have targeted key energy and logistics hubs, causing significant damage to Russia’s ability to supply fuel and other critical resources to its armed forces.
The war is now entering a new phase, with Ukraine achieving more on the battlefield and in the skies. Russia’s earlier territorial gains have dwindled, as Moscow struggles to maintain momentum. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia occupied only 37.85 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July 2026, a sharp decline from the 455,000 square kilometers it had secured by the same period in 2025.
The ISW also reported that Russia has lost 183.5 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory this year, compared to the 2,198 square kilometers it gained during the first seven months of 2025. Despite these losses, Russia has used infiltration tactics in certain regions. This approach involves sending small groups of troops into contested areas to lay the groundwork for future advances. In July, Moscow infiltrated 121.6 square kilometers, bringing the total infiltrated land for the year to 379.9 square kilometers.
While much of this infiltrated territory has been reclaimed by Ukrainian forces, concerns remain over the southern city of Kostiantynivka, a key stronghold. Ukrainian defenders have raised doubts about their ability to hold the city for much longer, citing both the strain of ongoing attacks and limited resources.
Zelenskyy has also acknowledged the heavy toll the war is taking on Ukraine’s military and civilian population. In a recent interview with Fox News, he stated that Ukraine has suffered 450,000 casualties, with 50,000 of those being reported as fatalities. These figures illustrate the vast human cost of the conflict.
The war, which is now in its fifth year, continues to evolve as both nations adapt their tactics. With Ukraine maintaining significant air and battlefield gains, and Russia responding with increasingly heavy artillery and drone defenses, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable.
As the conflict continues, the world watches closely for how this shifting balance of power might affect the broader geopolitical landscape. Both sides remain determined to press their objectives forward, even as the war’s human and material costs mount.