In a small office in Kyiv, a defense planner watches the weather forecast for the first frost. That moment marks the start of a season when Russia increases its aerial attacks. Ukraine still needs more air defense. But for now, Washington won’t let Kyiv produce its own Patriot missiles — and the delay could mean fewer defenses in the sky.
Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said on Fox News on Aug. 3 that a long-term agreement for co-producing Patriot missiles with Ukrainian companies won't happen before winter. 'We will continue working on it,' he said, but stressed the U.S. maintains strict control over manufacturing these systems within American borders.
Whitaker added that the U.S. is still exploring broader defense cooperation with Ukraine and European allies. 'There are co-production opportunities,' he said, but nothing firm has yet come from these discussions. U.S. production is currently the fastest option for new missiles, but it's unclear how many will be shipped before winter.
Trump's Contradictions
Earlier this month, former U.S. president Donald Trump gave conflicting statements on the issue. At a July 8 NATO summit, he said the U.S. would grant a production license to Ukraine. Less than a month later, he changed course, saying no final decision had been made.
The confusion highlights concerns over the security risks of transferring sensitive U.S. technology to Kyiv. Trump called it 'a big step,' and the U.S. remains cautious.
A Defense in Peril
Patriot systems are Ukraine's main defense against Russian ballistic missiles, which have grown in frequency. Kyiv has repeatedly asked Western allies to step up deliveries ahead of the winter surge in attacks. For now, the best hope comes from U.S. factories. But if production shifts haven't begun by winter, the skies above Ukraine will remain vulnerable.
Kyiv’s urgent calculus For Kyiv, the licence question is as much about long-term resilience as immediate survival. Ukrainian officials argue that co-production would both accelerate supply and embed Ukraine more firmly within the western defence-industrial base. Zelenskyy has made expanding domestic defence production a central pillar of Ukraine’s war strategy, including deeper cooperation with US defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin. In meetings with US senators during his Washington visit, Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine’s most pressing need remains a steady flow of interceptors throughout the rest of 2026, potentially financed by European partners.