Across Europe, farmers are sounding alarms over a steep decline in food production. They report a surge in food prices as crops such as maize and salad greens are increasingly imperiled. Extreme heat, prolonged drought, and devastating wildfires are to blame. The ongoing climate crisis has pushed temperatures across the continent to record-breaking levels. This is damaging olive groves and other key crops. Olive oil, which is already in high demand and costly, is likely to see further price hikes. Its supply is dwindling.
In France, the vegetable growers' association, Légumes de France, has reported that thousands of tonnes of agricultural products are lost. The losses are worth tens of millions of euros due to the extreme weather. Salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic, and onions are among the most affected. Some crop yields are expected to be cut in half. The lack of rainfall is the cause. The situation is particularly dire for French wine growers. Intense heat has disrupted grape development in famous wine regions. These include Champagne, Bordeaux, and Burgundy. In Champagne, a groundbreaking harvest is expected to begin around August 15. This marks the earliest start in recorded history. It is likely occurring about a month earlier than in previous decades.
Spain's agricultural crisis
Grape output is now anticipated to be 10% lower than it was the previous year, according to Reuters. Spain, a major agricultural producer, is also grappling with the effects of the climate crisis. The agriculture ministry has forecast the country's 2026-27 cereal crop to drop sharply from last year's 24 million tonnes to just over 18.5 million tonnes. This projection was made prior to the most recent wildfires, which have further damaged crop lands. Spain's farmers, who are typically more experienced in dealing with hot and dry conditions, are now facing increased water stress and challenges with early ripening.
Despite these challenges, not all countries are equally affected. Romania, for example, has seen more regular rainfall, and Italy’s wheat crops have shown surprising resilience. However, Spain’s situation remains a major concern, as it is the continent's leading producer of olive oil. The damage from wildfires and heat has left olive groves in Greece, Italy, and Portugal in disarray. Even groves that were not directly burned by fires have suffered from ash, poor air quality, and other related environmental issues. Pests and diseases, along with heat, have further compounded these problems, reducing the size of fruit and oil output.
The price of olive oil has already begun to climb again in the UK. A one-liter bottle of extra virgin oil now costs more than £7. Sarah Vachon, founder of the Citizens of Soil olive oil group, warned that unless weather patterns stabilize soon, olive oil prices are expected to rise further in the autumn. With less edible fruit available for oil production, she said, the outlook for the market remains grim.
Walter Zanre, head of the UK arm of the olive oil brand Filippo Berio, noted that while temperatures in Spain have been closer to average. Spain is the continent’s top olive oil producer compared to other European regions. Olive trees are still struggling due to the drought. He emphasized that fruit loss from dry conditions combined with an earlier-than-usual harvest could severely impact both olive oil production and market prices in the coming months. Zanre added that these factors will be closely monitored. They could have a material effect on the industry.
EU crop forecast reductions
The European Union has also reduced its crop forecasts for several key agricultural products. Projections for sunflowers, which are crucial for cooking oils, have been cut by 7%. Similarly, grain maize is expected to see a 6% reduction in output, while forecasts for potatoes and soybeans have been trimmed by 3%. Farmers across Europe are adapting by using drought-resistant crops and relying more heavily on irrigation and water reserves, but these measures may not be enough to counter the growing challenges posed by the climate crisis.
The ASAJA agricultural trade body in Spain reported that direct fire damage has affected orchards, vineyards, agricultural land, and greenhouses. Citrus fruits, avocados, almonds, vegetables, and olive groves have been particularly impacted. In addition to the physical destruction caused by fires, water stress and extreme temperatures have also taken a toll on crops, especially tomatoes and maize. According to a spokesperson for ASAJA, the primary concern remains rising production costs rather than restrictions on international trade.
UK import challenges and crop failures
In the UK, the drought has forced food wholesalers to import more of their staple items, such as iceberg lettuce and broccoli, from countries like Spain. British farmers have expressed concerns about shortages, noting the ongoing strain on local crops. Jason Bull, managing director of UK food importer Eurostar Commodities, explained that repeated heatwaves have accelerated the ripening and harvesting of winter crops across Europe, shortening the critical grain-filling period. As a result, potential grain size, quality, and overall yields may be reduced. While winter harvests are progressing reasonably in many countries, the heat has clearly reduced yield potential and could also affect grain quality.
The challenges facing summer crops are even more severe. Drought, depleted soil moisture, and extreme heat during flowering have created a perfect storm for potential crop failures. With the agricultural calendar shifting in response to increasingly erratic weather patterns, farmers and industry experts are bracing for further upheaval in both production and market prices. As the climate crisis continues to intensify, the future of European agriculture hangs in the balance.