NuScale Power is at a pivotal moment in its development. Company executives are actively striving to secure a power purchase agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority, aiming to complete the deal before the end of 2026. If the two parties sign an agreement, it would involve a 6 gigawatt contract. Such an agreement could allow NuScale to move forward with construction and generate over $1 billion in revenue by 2030 just from this one project alone.
This potential deal is significant for NuScale. As the only company cleared by regulators to construct small modular reactors, the company has not yet produced one. In 2024, a major project was canceled when costs became too high. The TVA project, on the other hand, could serve as a critical turning point, proving the company's ability to deliver on its promises and bring its reactor technology to reality.
NuScale's Market Position and Potential
The current position of NuScale is one of both risk and reward. The company operates with a market capitalization under $4 billion but is targeting a massive market opportunity. According to analysts at Bank of America, nuclear energy could attract $3 trillion in investment by 2050. Within this context, NuScale's small modular reactors could play a key role in transforming global energy supply systems.
However, NuScale's past performance has raised questions among many investors. For a previous project, costs surged dramatically, rising from $4.2 billion in 2018 to $9.3 billion in 2023 before the deal was ultimately canceled. If the TVA deal encounters delays, NuScale might need to issue more shares to maintain operations until another project reaches fruition.
If the power purchase agreement is signed, NuScale could begin construction and generate revenue more quickly. Having a binding agreement in place would ensure the TVA is committed to purchasing energy for years, helping justify the investment in the reactor system. This would mark a crucial milestone for NuScale, potentially starting a new phase of revenue growth.
At the moment, confidence in the market remains uncertain. NuScale's stock has experienced wild price changes, hitting $2 in 2023, reaching over $50 in 2025, and now trading just below $10. Investors are weighing the potential of regulatory progress against the question of whether the company can actually achieve its goals.
Challenges and Market Uncertainty
Analysts suggest the stock could climb to $30 by 2030 if the TVA project is successful. Yet, the same problems that caused prior delays might also slow this new deal. Until NuScale completes its first reactor and demonstrates its capabilities, the stock is still seen as a high-risk investment by many.
The Bank of America report further highlights how nuclear energy is gaining attention as a solution to the growing global demand for electricity, especially due to the rise in artificial intelligence and data centers. These advancements are creating a tipping point for small modular reactors to significantly reshape energy supply chains over the next decade.
Nuclear Energy's Growing Relevance
Despite the optimism, NuScale's ability to execute will remain under scrutiny. While the market has shown interest in NuScale's potential, the company must demonstrate that it can effectively manage costs and timelines for future projects to gain long-term trust from investors and the public.
The TVA project offers a chance for NuScale to reestablish its credibility and showcase its technology on a large scale. If the company successfully secures the power purchase agreement and begins construction, it could set the stage for substantial revenue generation and market capitalization growth. However, the potential for delays and additional costs remains a key concern for shareholders and potential partners alike.