New intelligence reports from the U.S. suggest a change in their analysis of Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions. Previously, U.S. officials thought that as long as Russia remained engrossed in its ongoing war in Ukraine, it would refrain from attacking a NATO member. However, recent assessments now indicate that Putin might consider limited strikes against a NATO nation as early as this autumn. These concerns are echoed by European officials, who have increasingly voiced similar warnings. In June, Germany's top military leader, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, raised alarms that Russia could strike NATO members within the next three years. American intelligence assessments also indicate that Putin is increasingly willing to authorize provocative actions that could extend onto NATO territory, U.S. officials briefed on the matter told CBS News. Those actions could include hybrid operations, cyberattacks, and other deniable measures short of a conventional military campaign, the officials said. The assessments reflect a shift in Putin's risk calculus compared with just a few months ago, U.S. officials say. The likely goal would not necessarily be to trigger a broader conflict, but to test NATO's unity and the Trump administration's willingness to respond to an attack on a NATO ally, according to the officials.
Lithuania's Defense Minister, Robert Kaunas, recently highlighted the potential for Russia to escalate its actions, stating that the Kremlin may target the Baltic region and Poland to create a new 'victory' for Putin. This warning came just days after a mysterious drone incident in the region. On Aug. 5, a first-person view drone reportedly crashed into a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport in Germany, an event German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt described as a hybrid attack scenario. Dobrindt did not explicitly mention Russia, but it is well known that the Kremlin has long used hybrid tactics to disrupt European stability. The discovery earlier this week of an explosive-laden drone at an airport in Leipzig, Germany, is assessed by the U.S. to be of Russian origin, officials said. Officials point to a pattern of other actions that have heightened concerns, including Russian drone incursions into Romania, a Russian missile that crossed into Poland last month, and a broader uptick in suspected sabotage, cyber operations, and other hybrid tactics across Europe. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European leaders have long argued publicly that Russia is expanding its use of hybrid tactics. 'We are Russia's next target, and we are already in harm's way,' Rutte warned last December, adding Moscow could be ready to use military force against NATO 'within five years.'
Ukraine receives less military aid
Military support from allied nations to Ukraine has significantly decreased. According to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, deliveries of air defense missiles dropped by two-thirds in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. This decline in support has led Zelensky to reiterate his calls for increased military assistance, which in turn prompted a response from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump pointed out that the United States also faces missile shortages, saying the U.S. 'needs missiles too.'
Russia escalates attacks on Kyiv
Russian forces have taken advantage of these defense gaps. A deadly attack on Kyiv on Aug. 5 killed 17 people and injured dozens more. The assault involved 24 ballistic missiles, four hypersonic missiles, and 115 Shahed-type drones, according to Ukraine's Air Force. Notably, not a single missile was intercepted during the attack. U.S. officials are concerned that the current shortage of key munitions, such as Patriot and THAAD systems, is complicating efforts to defend against such strikes. These shortages come amid ongoing tensions with Iran, further straining defense capabilities. The U.S. assessments come as Russia continues to absorb enormous losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. CIA Director John Ratcliffe said at a defense forum last month that U.S. intelligence is consistent with public battlefield estimates that newly arrived Russian recruits survive just 20 to 30 minutes before being killed or wounded, largely because of Ukraine's use of AI-powered attack drones. U.S. officials have said Russia is losing roughly 30,000 troops a month, or between 5,000 and 7,000 a week — losses that are outpacing its recruitment rate. U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war, meanwhile, have stalled, with no clear path to renewed negotiations. The CIA declined to comment on the assessment of U.S. intelligence agencies, and NATO has not yet responded to a request for comment. CBS News has reached out to the Russian Embassy in Washington for comment. The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the assessment.
The growing intelligence concerns coincide with a heightened focus on NATO’s eastern flank. A potential Russian attack could test the alliance’s Article 5 commitments, which require members to support each other in the face of an armed attack. European leaders, including Germany’s top military authority, have joined U.S. officials in raising alarms about Russia's hybrid warfare strategies. These include the potential for false flag attacks involving Ukrainian-made drones aimed at critical infrastructure in the region. Under Article 5 of the treaty that created NATO, members of the 32-country bloc are expected to come to each other's defense, treating an attack on any member state as an attack on them all. President Trump has expressed doubts about that arrangement at times, saying last year there are 'numerous definitions of Article 5' and he isn't sure that NATO member states would come to the defense of the United States if needed. (Article 5 was invoked for the only time in history after the U.S. was targeted by al-Qaeda on Sept. 11, 2001.) At other points, Mr. Trump has said the U.S. would protect NATO members. Mr. Trump has lashed out at some NATO member states, accusing some allies of not spending enough on their own defense and criticizing them for not joining the U.S. war with Iran. His administration has also sought to shift more responsibility for defense to European states, and has weighed pulling thousands of troops from Germany, though the president called off plans to cancel a deployment of troops to Poland earlier this year.