In the early morning hours of Thursday, US warplanes swept through five Iranian provinces, hitting IRGC command centres and missile facilities. By Saturday, the message from Iran had sharpened: any escalation would be met with retaliation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular army have launched attacks on US and Israeli military bases across the region, but their focus has increasingly shifted toward energy infrastructure. This shift underscores a broader strategy that blends military precision with economic coercion in what is now a 20-day-old conflict.
Major General Ali Abdollahi, head of Iran’s wartime military command, issued a statement on Saturday warning that the US is fanning the flames of regional war and urging Muslim nations to cut ties with Washington. He called for a reconsideration of US-aligned cooperation, warning that countries aligning with the US could find themselves burned in the fire of war. The Iranian state-linked Tasnim website cited an unnamed source saying armed forces have a plan to retaliate by striking vital infrastructure connected to the US and Israel. The plan reflects a growing sense of urgency among Iranian officials, who believe the US is positioning itself for a prolonged conflict.
Iran Warns of Retaliation
Abdollahi’s remarks came in reaction to reports by US media that the US and Israel may be preparing an imminent attack on civilian infrastructure in Iran, including power plants and petrochemical manufacturers. According to reports, President Donald Trump has yet to approve an operation that could last up to two weeks and aim to disrupt electricity in Tehran and other parts of the country. These reports, though unconfirmed, have stoked fears in Iran and beyond, with officials emphasizing that civilian targets are now fair game in this new phase of confrontation.
Since the war began on February 28, the US and Israel have targeted military bases and leaders in Iran, as well as parts of its civilian infrastructure. The bombing has worsened an already contracting economy and a severe energy imbalance in Iran, a country with more than 90 million people now feeling the squeeze. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has responded by launching drones and ballistic missiles at US and Israeli bases, but also by striking energy infrastructure in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states. This tit-for-tat escalation has turned a conflict once confined to military installations into a full-blown economic and political struggle.
Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz told a security conference on Saturday that Israel is ready to 'set Iran back 40 years' through strikes on its energy targets. However, he noted the US has not yet given the go-ahead because of concerns about potential retaliation against neighboring countries and the risk of a global oil crisis.
Regional Escalation and Collateral Damage
Regional Escalation and Proxy Conflicts
Strikes have been intensifying across the region. In Kuwait, air defences destroyed multiple Iranian drones on Saturday, with some damage reported to government facilities and civilian vehicles. Western maritime authorities said at least two vessels were hit off the coast of Oman, one with damage to its engine room. Iranian state media broadcast footage from a damaged ship, warning others not to trust the US promises of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route, has become a flashpoint in the conflict, with Iran using it to pressure countries that support the US-Israeli axis.
Iran also said four other ships were turned back, as the southern corridor of the strait remains closed to non-approved traffic. The involvement of Kurdish groups could further complicate the conflict, with regional powers such as the US and Turkey already having their own vested interests in the outcome.
Two Kurdish armed groups claimed they were hit on Friday. The fighting in Iraq highlights how the war has spilled beyond Iran’s borders, with proxy conflicts flaring up in areas once considered relatively stable. This widening conflict may yet reshape the balance of power in the region.
Military and Strategic Implications
The Center for Strategic and International Studies reported this week that US air defences have performed largely well, but persistent combat operations have reduced the inventory of missile interceptors in the US military’s arsenal. Patriot inventories are now under 1,000, and THAAD is at about 250. This depletion of critical resources raises questions about the US's long-term ability to sustain its military presence in the region, especially if the conflict escalates further.
Tensions continue to rise as both sides demonstrate an increasing willingness to strike at civilian infrastructure. While Iran has so far focused on retaliating through military and strategic means, its message to the region is clear: any cooperation with the US or Israel could have dire consequences. As the situation evolves, it remains to be seen whether this warning will prompt a shift in regional alliances, particularly among Muslim-majority countries that are currently aligned with the US in this conflict.