Within a fortified military facility in southern Iran, workers handle crates marked with numbers and dates—missile parts, drone engines, and components for new weapons systems. The air is still, but activity beneath the surface is intense. The Islamic Republic has exploited the ceasefire with the United States to rebuild, refine, and expand its offensive capabilities. Iran’s military strategy has taken advantage of the temporary halt in hostilities to sharpen its readiness for potential future conflict.
Mohammad Akraminia, the army spokesman, announced that Iran has 'made maximum use of the opportunity of the memorandum of understanding' during the pause in hostilities with the United States. He was referring to the now-suspended agreement signed in June. While he did not explicitly state it, the evidence suggests that this supposed pause was not truly a pause at all. Rather, it was a strategic pivot to bolster Iran’s military position. Brigadier General Akraminia emphasized that this period saw the induction of existing equipment into the armed forces, the import of new systems, and the repair and enhancement of damaged capabilities.
Increased Production
In July, acting Defence Minister Majid Ebn-e Reza confirmed that the production of missiles and drones had not stopped. He stated that drone output had reached 'three times its pre-war levels,' although no specific figures were provided. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) offered similar insights, with its spokesman, Hossein Mohebbi, stating that missile accuracy had improved during the ceasefire, as a result of battlefield experience and knowledge gained through combat. According to Mohebbi, Iran’s missile production rate increased while the IRGC continued to launch attacks against US and allied forces, testing and refining its systems in real-world scenarios.
The IRGC has not revealed the complete scope of its weapons stockpiles or the extent of damage inflicted on its infrastructure. However, reports from U.S. media in June indicated that Iran retained roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and 40 percent of its drones. This suggests that Iran has the capacity to endure and continue its asymmetric warfare efforts for months to come, particularly in contested areas like the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC and the army have been using the ceasefire to prepare for a potential return to hostilities, integrating lessons learned during the war into their operational doctrine.
Since the war began on February 28, U.S., Israeli, and regional forces have conducted thousands of sorties inside Iranian airspace. Some of these aircraft have been shot down. Iran’s air defenses have been weakened, but the IRGC and the army report intercepting cruise missiles, MQ-9 and MQ-1 drones, and the one-way Lucas drones operated by the U.S. Army in southern Iran in recent weeks. These actions indicate that Iran is not only defending itself but also developing tactics to counter advanced enemy assets. The IRGC has claimed to shoot down multiple US drones, demonstrating its growing ability to detect and neutralize high-tech threats in contested airspace.
Arms Supply and Denials
This month, Reuters reported that Iran could soon receive 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defense missile launchers, which would be delivered through Pakistan. China and Pakistan denied the report, and Iran did not officially comment. However, former IRGC commander Hossein Kanani Moghaddam told Al Jazeera that the military has enhanced its domestic production and improved missile capabilities. He added that stockpiles in 'underground missile and drone cities' are being replenished with new parts. Kanani Moghaddam emphasized that Iran’s focus on indigenous manufacturing has allowed it to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers while still maintaining a robust weapons inventory.
Trump's Pattern and Iran's Strategy
The Trump administration has frequently threatened strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants and petrochemical companies. Each time, the administration has canceled these threats just as quickly. This pattern of aggressive rhetoric followed by abrupt pauses has temporarily stabilized global oil prices and U.S. stocks. However, these actions have not resolved the underlying tensions in the region. Trump has alternated between threats of 'total surrender' and calls for diplomacy, maintaining pressure on Iran while also signaling a willingness to pursue negotiations. This cycle of threats and pauses has created a volatile environment where both sides continue to prepare for potential escalation.
Regional Escalation
Meanwhile, the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran in Yemen, launched a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s Najran Airport this week. The attack was a response to Saudi drone strikes in Yemeni territory. This exchange highlights a critical message: although a ceasefire may be in place, the war is still being waged, but in smaller, more distant forms. The conflict is evolving into a decentralized and prolonged struggle that affects multiple fronts. Iran and its regional allies continue to use proxies and asymmetric tactics to extend their influence, even as Washington and its partners push for a diplomatic resolution.