A warmer atmosphere, not less rain, is deepening drought
In late July, an international team of scientists published a sobering assessment: human-caused climate change is accelerating moisture loss from European soils, lakes, and rivers. This is not the result of a drier sky, but a hotter one. The study, conducted by the World Weather Attribution group, found that extreme heat, amplified by the warming atmosphere, is now the primary force behind the most severe drought conditions seen across the continent.
The continent is enduring a prolonged dry spell, with France and Romania among the hardest hit. Parched rivers, water rationing, and devastating wildfires are the visible symptoms of a deeper problem. A historic heatwave in June has only exacerbated the situation, pushing temperatures to record-breaking levels and deepening the soil’s thirst.
Soil dries faster as the air gets hotter
The study used weather data and climate models to compare the likelihood of extreme drought in today’s world, warmed by roughly 1.4°C since the pre-industrial era, against a cooler world. The results are stark. In western Europe, extremely dry soils are now five times more likely than they would have been without climate change. In eastern Europe, the odds are 11 times higher. And in the three months between April and June 2023, exceptionally high evaporation levels were 80 times more likely in the current climate than before.
Mariam Zachariah, one of the study’s authors from Imperial College London, said this means even in regions where rainfall has remained steady or is projected to increase, the risk of drought is still rising. “The same rainfall deficit that might not have caused a drought in a cooler climate can now lead to a much more severe event,” she said.
The cycle of fire and heat begins on the soil
Dominik Schumacher, a co-author from ETH Zurich, described how the increasingly hot air dries soils, which in turn amplifies the heat effect. This cycle primes the land for wildfires, which have already burned through parts of southern and central Europe.
In June 2023, western Europe experienced its hottest June on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The heat was so extreme that some areas with relatively wet winters were left bone-dry just months later. The same pattern is now emerging across the continent—rainfall is not the main issue. It is the heat that is drying out the land faster than it can be replenished. This is not an isolated event. And the continent, already warming faster than most, may soon face more of the same.