A magnitude 6.8 earthquake hit near Kumamoto City on July 28, 2026, delivering a fresh blow to a region already impacted by a damaging earthquake in 2016. According to Verisk, a major data analytics company, the insured losses from the event are expected to range between JPY 220 billion and JPY 340 billion, which is about USD 1.4 billion to 2.1 billion.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports that the earthquake occurred at a shallow depth of around 10 kilometers. The strongest tremors were felt in Uki City and Hikawa Town. The earthquake caused damage to homes, commercial properties, and public infrastructure. Highways, bridges, and rail systems also suffered disruptions, complicating transportation and emergency efforts.
Infrastructure and power hit hardest
Right after the quake, about 48,000 households were left without power. Major transportation networks including highways, bridges, and rail lines were damaged, making travel and supply movement difficult. Some cultural landmarks also saw damage, although full evaluations of the damage are still being carried out. Authorities are continuing to assess the extent of property destruction, with initial reports pointing to significant structural issues.
Supply chains in jeopardy
The area includes important manufacturing hubs, and several key facilities in sectors like semiconductors, electronics, and automotive were forced to halt operations for damage checks. These production stoppages have raised concerns about potential disruptions to Japan's supply chains, with possible effects rippling across the country.
The estimated insured losses do not account for business interruptions, infrastructure damage, or losses from perils like landslides that were not included in the modeling process. Verisk's model mainly considers physical damage resulting from ground shaking and liquefaction.
Uncertainty remains in loss estimates
The projected loss range of JPY 220 billion to JPY 340 billion takes into account factors such as the distribution of fault slip and the rate of insurance coverage in the area. Verisk is continuing to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as more data becomes available.
While Japan’s earthquake insurance system helps with partial recovery, the final financial impact will depend on the results of damage assessments and the claims process. Verisk's model does not include claims for losses related to automobiles, marine and aviation damages, or increases in demand.