Dax hits a new record high on Monday
The German stock market index Dax closed Monday at 26,001 points, marking a 1.5 percent rise from the previous day. This achievement means the Dax surpassed its previous record of 26,097 points, which it reached during a strong upward trend. As of early Tuesday, the index showed no change on over-the-counter trading platforms, signaling a brief pause in its momentum after hitting a historic milestone. The Dax is supported by its heavyweights. With Telekom, SAP and Rheinmetall, individual stocks with very high market capitalization were among the biggest winners. The first winner of the day was Siemens Healthineers shares. Bayer were at the lower end. According to Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at Consorbank, this shows that the new DAX highs are more related to the expectation of better international business than to hopes of an improvement in the economic situation in Germany itself. Martin Utschneider from Robomarkets notes that the new record high is a sustainable technical chart signal that the short-term upward trend remains intact. The Dax has freed itself from the sideways phase upwards. He suggests that from a technical perspective, there is further medium-term potential for rising prices up to 26,380. Even a short-term consolidation would not pose a lasting threat to the upward trend. This Tuesday, investors can also look at company figures. Among others, the pharmaceutical company Bayer and fashion retailer Zalando placed.
Trump halts Iran strike, but Tehran denies talks
Investors globally saw a shift in geopolitical risk on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump announced he was canceling a major military operation against Iran. Trump described the potential military action as the largest since World War II but decided to put it on hold to allow diplomatic discussions to take place. The president set the date for potential new talks with Iran as early as Monday. However, Iranian authorities quickly clarified that no formal negotiations with the U.S. are ongoing at this time, leaving the situation somewhat uncertain. At the start of the week, Trump was once again the price driver in connection with the price of oil. At the weekend, Trump canceled what he said was the largest attack by the U.S. military since World War II in order to give new negotiations with Iran a chance. This caused optimism in the markets. As a result, energy prices fell significantly. A barrel (159 liters) of the oil reference variety Brent for delivery in October cost just under 84 U.S. dollars on Monday evening, around five percent less. According to Thomas Altmann, portfolio manager at QC Markets, the geopolitical situation in Iran is likely to influence trade developments. Oil prices are rising again, with a barrel (159 liters) of the reference Brent variety from the North Sea for delivery in September costing just under 85 U.S. dollars, 1.75 percent more than the day before. At this level, the price for the global reference variety is around 17 percent below the interim high of just over $100 reached in the second half of July. Altmann warns that if hopes for lasting peace are dashed again, price gains and positive sentiment will quickly become a thing of the past. Frank Sohlleder from Activtrades agrees, noting that such a scenario would reactivate cost pressure on companies, put a strain on the stock markets, and put the current record hunt to a tough test.
The news was welcomed by markets on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones index saw significant gains. The index closed Monday at 53,178 points, up by 1.3 percent. This brought the index to within just over 50 points of its all-time high. The broader S&P 500 also saw a rise, ending at 7,600 points, a 1.5 percent increase. These movements signaled optimism among investors.
Asian markets responded positively to the developments, although with varied results. The MSCI index, which tracks stocks in Asia excluding Japan, rose slightly by 0.1 percent. South Korea's Kospi index gained 2.1 percent, showing the strongest performance in the region. In contrast, Japan's Nikkei index slipped 0.3 percent, bucking the upward trend observed elsewhere.
Key U.S. economic data to follow on Tuesday
On Tuesday, markets will closely watch the U.S. trade balance report, which is scheduled for release at 2:30 p.m. The numbers for June are expected to show a slight improvement in the trade deficit, with economists forecasting a decline to around $73 trillion, down from $77.6 trillion in May. A smaller deficit can indicate a healthier economy, as it suggests more exports and potentially less reliance on foreign goods.
At 4 p.m., the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release data on job openings from June under the JOLTS report. Analysts are projecting 7.42 million open positions, slightly higher than the 7.59 million reported in May. This data can provide insight into the strength of the U.S. labor market and may influence expectations for future employment trends.
Also at 4 p.m., data on new industrial orders for June will be released. Economists anticipate a flattening of the trend after a notable 1.3 percent decline in May. This information is crucial for assessing business confidence and industrial activity, which are closely linked to overall economic health.
SpaceX will make its first public financial presentation since its initial public offering (IPO) in June. As a major player in the aerospace industry, the company has attracted attention for its ambitious projects and growing influence. Investors will be keen to see how its operations are performing following the successful IPO.
Multiple companies across Europe and beyond are set to release quarterly financial results on Tuesday. One of the highlights is Deutsche Lufthansa, which will report its Q2 figures at 7:00 a.m. The airline has been navigating a challenging industry landscape, so its financial update will be of particular interest. Additional presentation and analyst call details are scheduled for 10:00 a.m. and 11:30 a.m., providing investors with in-depth insights into the company's performance. From the 40 German DAX alone, almost half of the companies have quarterly figures due to be published. Bayer, Continental, FMC and Zalando want to open their books on Tuesday. The results of Fresenius, DHL Group, Siemens Energy, Vonovia, Infineon and Beiersdorf are on the agenda for Wednesday. Commerzbank will follow on Thursday.
Siemens Healthineers: The medical technology manufacturer published quarterly figures on Friday, and shares then fell. The countermovement followed on Monday. Siemens Healthineers shares are now at their highest level since mid-March. Eon: The energy supplier's shares went up by two percent. The analysis house Jefferies previously held the shares of Eon.
Travel industry: The latest signs of easing in the Middle East conflict particularly boosted the travel sector on Monday. The shares of the tourism group Tui.
