A notable shift in maritime activity was observed following a week of heightened coast guard operations. On one specific day, 24 vessels were recorded in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Liu, commenting on the matter, described these activities as 'routine law enforcement.' However, the timing and intensity imply a deliberate effort to shape the regional strategic landscape.
Stable military pressure with intermittent decreases
Throughout the first five months of 2026, the average number of Chinese military aircraft detected near Taiwan stood at 7.5 per day. During the May summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, from May 13 to May 17, this number dropped to just three daily sorties. Notably, no flights were recorded on May 14 and 15. Analysts speculate that this reduction in flights may reflect the diplomatic efforts between the two leaders.
Upon the conclusion of the summit, the People's Liberation Army conducted a joint combat readiness patrol on May 19. On that day, a total of 24 aircraft were dispatched to the region. Observers in both Taipei and Washington carefully tracked these developments, noting that while military operations remained within historical patterns, there were signs of an evolving trend.
China enhances gray zone pressure methods
Since 2018, the China Coast Guard has operated under the People's Armed Police, gaining enhanced capabilities while retaining its law enforcement identity. This reorganization has enabled the coast guard to exert more force without becoming a fully military entity. In 2022, the People's Liberation Army used the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan as a justification to abandon the long-held tacit agreement on the Taiwan Strait's median line. This marked a pivotal shift in behavior. By 2026, similar tactics were being applied to the waters east of Taiwan, where the coast guard now conducts inspections and fishery protection under the guise of law enforcement.
From June 1 to June 9, 2026, the number of Chinese vessels near Taiwan jumped from an average of one per day to a peak of 10. Despite this increase, military aircraft activity did not change. This shift highlights a new approach to pressure, relying on a consistent, low-key presence instead of overt demonstrations of strength.
Regional allies watch for developments
The recent deployment of the China Coast Guard came after the Philippines and Japan announced plans to negotiate the boundaries of their exclusive economic zones. These negotiations aim to resolve overlapping maritime claims in the region, which also affect the waters east of Taiwan. China's decision to patrol these waters under the guise of law enforcement has raised concerns, especially given the past experiences of Tokyo and Manila with the China Coast Guard's assertive tactics, such as high-pressure water cannon attacks.
In the early part of July 2026, the China Coast Guard continued its patrols, adjusting its formation and conducting inspections as part of its ongoing operations. This evolution in strategy aligns with a broader effort to exert subtle influence, allowing Beijing to extend its control without triggering a full-scale military reaction.