Michael Terpin, a crypto investor and founder of the blockchain advisory firm Transform Ventures, shared his insights with Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets show. He warned that Bitcoin could drop to $43,500 based on his analysis of market cycles and the repeated mismanagement of trader expectations. Terpin argues that the failure to exit during Bitcoin’s rise and consolidation phases is a key reason many investors struggle.
He highlighted the previous market cycle peak in November 2021, when Bitcoin climbed to about $69,000 before entering a long consolidation period. Terpin pointed out that traders had more than enough time to exit the market above $60,000. However, they stayed in due to greed, convinced the price would reach $100,000. But then everybody thought it was going to $100,000,” he said, referencing the popular belief in the crypto community.
Bitcoin’s cycles and bad macro
Terpin explained that Bitcoin has experienced two back-to-back cycles with poor macroeconomic conditions. These factors, such as interest rates and global economic instability, have significantly impacted the asset’s performance. He had hoped for a better macro environment during a potential Trump administration, but the introduction of tariffs and various policy changes disrupted the stability. These changes led to increased volatility and opportunities for market manipulation. Terpin noted that Bitcoin eventually hit a milestone of $100,000 in December 2024, only a month after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.
As an early investor, Terpin has been involved in several blockchain projects during their formative stages. This includes Ethereum, Tether, and WAX, all of which have grown into major names in the crypto space. He made a strategic move to Puerto Rico, known for its crypto-friendly tax policies, and has since supported numerous blockchain startups based on the island. His ongoing investment in Bitcoin remains grounded in its four-year halving cycle.
Halvings, institutions, and altcoin fatigue
Despite ongoing debates in 2025 about whether institutional adoption or the introduction of spot ETFs might alter Bitcoin’s traditional cycle, Terpin remains steadfast in his belief that the halving pattern is still valid. He dismissed the claim that institutions never sell their crypto holdings as misleading, stating that they do sell regularly. Terpin also offered caution to investors who prefer to invest in companies that hold Bitcoin rather than directly in the asset.
He specifically pointed out the risks associated with companies like Strategy, which has taken an aggressive approach to accumulating Bitcoin. While he admires Michael Saylor's efforts and acknowledges his success, Terpin warns that investing in the corporate structure introduces additional risks. He prefers to bet directly on Bitcoin and advocates for a low-maintenance strategy. Unlike altcoins, which require constant monitoring and active trading, Terpin believes Bitcoin can be managed with minimal effort. Whereas with altcoins, you gotta be, you gotta be on it.” According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is currently up 1.67% over the past 30 days, but Terpin is predicting a potential correction in the near future.