The war game and the metal shortage
Late last year, around 80 government officials and industry leaders gathered in Washington, D.C. The focus of the exercise was to test the resilience of the nation’s aluminum supply chain. What emerged was a concerning picture. A new analysis, never previously revealed, highlights a critical risk: the US could face a major bottleneck in high-purity aluminum, an essential component in fighter jets and armored vehicles, if a crisis were to unfold.
The US is heavily dependent on a narrow group of suppliers for this niche but crucial metal. The United Arab Emirates plays a central role, providing about 90% of the high-purity aluminum that flows into the American market. Any disruption to this supply chain could put the country’s military capabilities in jeopardy.
From simulation to reality
Just seven months after the Pentagon simulation, the US launched a military strike against Iran. The conflict quickly spiraled, with Iranian drone attacks damaging several major industrial facilities in the region. These strikes hit a key UAE plant, sending prices of high-purity aluminum soaring to a four-year peak. The ripple effects of this disruption were immediate and stark.
The UAE facility has since resumed partial operations, but it will likely take months before it reaches full production levels. Simultaneously, the strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further complicated the movement of aluminum shipments, intensifying global anxiety about the stability of supply chains. These disruptions have thrown the US and other nations into a scramble for alternative sources of the critical metal.
Domestic production and foreign reliance
Until recently, the US maintained a domestic production base for high-purity aluminum. However, the country’s last major facility for this ultra-refined metal closed in 2022 due to rising energy costs. This loss left the US entirely dependent on foreign suppliers for a material crucial to its defense infrastructure. With no local option, the reliance on external sources has become more pronounced and risky.
This timing could not be worse. The Pentagon is working to replenish its dwindling stockpiles of high-purity aluminum. At the same time, a surge in global defense spending has heightened competition for the raw materials that modern military systems depend on. Bill Greenwalt, a former senior Pentagon official who now works at the American Enterprise Institute, has warned that the events in the Persian Gulf highlight a serious vulnerability in the US supply chain.
“It’s a huge wake-up call for the department to be looking at supply chains in all areas around the world to ensure that they’re not especially vulnerable to attack or sabotage,” Greenwalt explained. He served as Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for industrial policy during the George W. Bush administration, giving him deep insight into military logistics.
Leading suppliers of high-purity aluminum to the US military include companies such as Tennessee-based Kaiser Aluminum Corp., France’s Constellium SE, and Apollo Global Management’s Arconic Corp. These firms are major suppliers to defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing. Despite their importance, the ultra-refined metal market remains constrained, with prices consistently trading at a premium. This premium is driven by the specialized nature of the product and the limited number of producers.
Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is the dominant player in this sector, supplying roughly 75,000 to 85,000 metric tons of high-purity aluminum annually for US military use. The ability of the US to secure enough material in the near future hinges on two key factors: the uninterrupted transport of aluminum shipments from the Middle East and the speed with which EGA’s damaged plant can return to full operation.
Sources indicate that EGA’s stockpiles in the US are already running low. If the recovery process for the UAE facility is delayed, the situation could worsen rapidly. The drone attacks have demonstrated that even facilities vital to national defense are not immune to targeted strikes. This realization has forced Pentagon planners to reevaluate the security and resilience of their logistics networks in real time.