A recent survey by Helm, a group representing over 400 UK scale-up founders, found that just 6% of members believe Andy Burnham would be a pro-business prime minister. Combined revenue among these members amounts to £8bn, making their views a significant barometer for UK business sentiment.
Around 83% of respondents expect economic conditions to either remain unchanged or deteriorate under Burnham. Just under half of the entrepreneurs surveyed were pessimistic about what lies ahead, casting doubt on the leader's pro-business appeal despite recent policy promises.
Burnham's promises fail to win trust
Andreas Adamides, CEO of Helm, said the survey revealed a Burnham's recent commitment to reversing the employers' national insurance rise in his first 100 days. Adamides highlighted this as a potential move to restore business confidence. He said, however, that uncertainty around future tax policies remains the biggest threat to investment and growth.
Tax and spending pressures grow
Burnham has pledged measures to ease the cost of living, including potential adjustments to policies inherited from Rachel Reeves' government, which raised business costs via national insurance hikes. These changes brought in an additional £25bn in annual government revenue but are now seen as problematic for job creation and youth employment.
Chancellor John Healey faces a difficult path as he balances cost-of-living support with the need to boost defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030. This is estimated to require an additional £9bn annually. Burnham's spending pledges may further strain public finances. These are already under pressure from rising energy costs linked to the Iran war.
Both Burnham and Healey have urged Cabinet ministers to identify budget cuts, but there is currently no clear sense of how deep these savings might be. Meanwhile, the government is set to spend over £110bn on debt interest in the current financial year, adding to financial constraints.